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EL FENÓMENO EL NIÑO ( FEN )
 
Por Prof.Lincoln Alayo Bernal
 
Indudablemente, el fenómeno climático conocido como El Niño(FEN), no es nuevo (exploradores españoles informaron sobre este fenómeno en 1525-1526), pero después de ser una causa relativamente silenciosa de destrucción durante relativamente silenciosa de destrucción durante cientos de años, cobró fama repentinamente en los últimos meses de 1997 y especialmente en el primer trimestre de 1998, era difícil encontrar una red de noticias en los que no presentase un informe sobre El Niño un artículo de fondo cinco o seis veces por semana “El Niño” se convirtió en un termino común en gran parte de Occidente.

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Aunque suena engañosamente sin importancia El fenómeno El Niño comprende la aparición de agua marítima superficial excepcionalmente caliente en las regiones central y oriental del océano Pacífico , cerca de la línea ecuatorial. El fenómeno ocurre cada cinco años , aproximadamente, casi moderado (agua marítima superficial 2 a 3 grados centígrados por encima de lo normal) y con efectos locales solamente. No obstante, un evento extremo en el Perú modifica las características meteorológicas a nivel mundial y genera “anomalías ” (tormentas, inundaciones, sequías) no solo en América (incluidos los países andinos, Brasil, Paraguay y Argentina) sino también, mediante “teleconexiones” atmosféricas , en África, Asia e incluso Australia (ver Glantz, 1996, para un tratamiento completo del tema).
 
TRES OBSERVACIONES SOBRE EL EPISODIO DE 1997 – 1998
Tres aspectos del fenómeno de El Niño (FEN) más reciente son particularmente dignos de mención .
 
En primer lugar, perdido en medio del bombardeo de los medios de comunicación generado por el FEN de 1997–1998, se encuentra el hecho de que el evento de 1982 – 1983 fue considerado “el FEN del siglo”. Las pérdidas acumuladas se calcularon en $ 13.000 millones. Sin embargo, la magnitud, el alcance y la duración del impacto del FEN de 1997 – 1998 son por lo menos de la misma magnitud que las de 1982–1983. Por lo tanto, hemos visto dos “FEN del Siglo “ en el lapso de 15 años, lo cual nos hace dudar, especialmente si la comunidad científica puede establecer una conexión de los FEN con el recalentamiento del planeta y el cambio climático. Sin embargo, podemos decir al menos que los episodios del FEN constituyen un riesgo de recurrencia permanente.
 
En segundo lugar, debido al amplio alcance de las consecuencias de los FEN, esencialmente a nivel sectorial, la mitigación de un FEN requiere un enfoque integral y sumamente coordinado que incluya dependencias gubernamentales múltiples, el sector privado y organizaciones nacionales e internacionales tanto intergubernamentales como no gubernamentales. Es decir, la gestión de los FEN requiere el mismo enfoque (idealmente) que la gestión de desarrollo en general. Aunque el crecimiento y la prosperidad a nivel económico pueden mitigar el impacto del los FEN, o al menos facilitar la recuperación a nivel global, solo un enfoque altamente coordinado de los sectores internacional, gubernamental y de la sociedad civil proporcionara protección a los sectores más pobre y vulnerables de la población.
 
En tercer lugar, y lo que es más importante (debido a su carácter recurrente, si bien impredecible, y al cada vez mayor tiempo de advertencia que resulta del uso de las nuevas tecnologías), los episodios del FEN son excelentes candidatos para la mitigación. sistemática.
 
Después de todo, en comparación con los principales terremotos, que a menudo presentan intervalos de recurrencia medidos en cientos de años, los episodios principales del FEN se repiten cada diez años aproximadamente. Si bien esto todavía excede la esperanza de vida de la mayoría de los gobiernos, un adulto tipo podría observar tres o cuatro FEN de envergadura durante su vida y probablemente experimentar al menos algunos de sus efectos. Por consiguiente, es conveniente reiterar que el tiempo transcurre de dos maneras posibles: "durante un FEN" o "entre dos FEN."
 
EL EPISODIO DE 1982 – 1983 :
¿HUBO APRENDIZAJE EN EL INTERVALO ENTRE DOS FEN?
 
 
Sería tranquilizados afirmar que se extrajeron enseñanzas importantes, a partir del FEN de 1982 – 1983, sobre medidas a tomar y programas a implementar. Lamentablemente, no fue así. Con escasas excepciones, y principalmente a nivel local, la infraestructura y los bienes económicos perdidos en el FEN de 1982-1983 sencillamente se repararon o se reemplazaron in situ, sin considerar seriamente la mitigación de futuros FEN.
 
El desarrollo y la capacidad institucional para abordar el tema de los desastres tampoco demostraron aprendizaje serio a partir del FEN de 1982-1983. Las organizaciones y los sistemas de defensa civil se fortalecieron mínimamente y no recibieron ningún tipo de instrucción para la mitigación. En otras palabras, carecían de recursos y continuaron siendo sistemas de respuesta de bajo perfil con capacidad prácticamente nula para la coordinación previa al episodio o para ejercer alguna influencia en la adopción de medidas.
 
La mayor enseñanza del FEN de 1982-1983 se manifestó en las comunidades científicas.
 
Sin embargo, las observaciones sobre el terreno durante el FEN de 1997-1998 revelaron una situación algo diferente, donde la falta de canales institucionales permanentes (y desacuerdos científicos a principios de 1997) retrasó el flujo de información lo cual puede explicar uno de los problemas más destacados del FEN de 1997-1998 fue una lectura gubernamental incorrecta de la experiencia previa.
 
Desde mediados hasta fines de 1997, se participó en una variedad de actividades para la mitigación física (por ejemplo, limpieza de canales, reparación de diques). Lamentablemente, supusieron que el FEN de 1997-1998 que se estaba formando sería una repetición del episodio de 1982-1983, cuando en realidad resultó ser bastante similar al episodio de 1925- 1926. Como consecuencia, gran parte de la actividad de mitigación se llevó a cabo en el lugar incorrecto.
 
La enseñanza más importante, como señalamos anteriormente, es que mientras los FEN son fenómenos de alcance regional a mundial, son sus efectos locales específicos los que son tan problemáticos, y estos efectos locales 1) varían extraordinariamente de FEN a FEN, 2} son difíciles de predecir excepto en el muy corto plazo (de horas a uno o dos días)y 3) constituyen los verdaderos desastres / catástrofes asociados con episodios FEN.
 
Por consiguiente, la mitigación de los FEN debe realizarse a largo plazo, debe ser de alcance regional y nacional y estar informada por la comunidad científica acerca de datos históricos. Para expresarlo claramente, las regiones que experimentan regularmente efectos significativos de los FEN siempre deben estar preparándose sistemáticamente (mitigación y preparativos) para el siguiente episodio.
 
 
¿ESTAREMOS PREPARADOS INSTITUCIONALMENTE PARA HACER FRENTE AL FENOMENO DE EL NIÑO DE GRAN ENVERGADURA?
 
A fin de responder a la pregunta de manera completa y justa, debemos recordar una tipología de episodios especialmente útil Basándose en estudios anteriores de respuesta institucional a sucesos extremos, el veterano investigador de desastres Hemy Quarantelli (1987) clasificó en una oportunidad tales sucesos de acuerdo con sus necesidades de respuesta.
 
En su esquema, los accidentes son tratados típicamente por organizaciones ya establecidas de respuesta de las que normalmente se espera que participen en un suceso (por ejemplo, servicios de policía, de bomberos, paramédicos).
 
Las emergencias requieren el agregado de capacidades institucionales latentes, por ejemplo la Cruz Roja, El Ejército o Defensa Civil.
 
Los desastres, en cambio, incluyen no solo la participación y las actividades de respuesta esperadas y las organizaciones latentes, sino también la asistencia de organismos y/o organizaciones de respuesta que "se extiendan" hasta el área del impacto, por ejemplo empresas de construcción privadas o empresas de servicios públicos que participan en actividades no habituales.
 
Las catástrofes son tan graves que se caracterizan por la aparición de organizaciones e incluso de movimientos sociales enteramente nuevos.
 
Si bien esta tipología no encaja exactamente en el contexto nacional, la lógica del umbral sí lo hace y ayuda a aclarar lo que sucedió con defensa civil durante el FEN de 1997-1998, lo que posiblemente suceda en episodios futuros, y también lo que se puede hacer para romper el patrón de funcionamiento.
 
La clave es una barrera de protección política entre las dos primeras y las dos últimas categorías de acontecimientos. Hay una cierta tautología en la explicación, pero dado que los intereses políticos que se incluyen en la respuesta a accidentes y emergencia son generalmente bajos, defensa civil se activará en casos de emergencia y permanecerá "a cargo." Sin embargo, si un acontecimiento supera el umbral de emergencia y se convierte en un desastre, los intereses políticos aumentan significativamente, y el gobierno no puede permitir que la respuesta al suceso permanezca en manos de una organización con bajo perfil político o escasa experiencia.
 
Esa lógica se toma aún más pronunciada si el suceso resulta ser una verdadera catástrofe, con todas las repercusiones políticas que conlleva (especialmente la posible creación de grupos autónomos de ciudadanos u organizaciones de movimiento social).
 
Resulta interesante ver que la lógica del umbral aclara por qué el FEN de 1997-1998 fue calificado como desastre. Con la profundización de los efectos a fines de 1997 y principios de 1998, el FEN pasó de ser una serie de emergencias relativamente localizadas (y por lo tanto incluyendo a defensa civil) a ser un desastre que requería la atención de las autoridades a nivel nacional.
 
Entonces, ¿qué significan el análisis hecho hasta aquí y la adaptación de la lógica del umbral de Quarantelli para el futuro de las organizaciones de defensa civil?
 
Una opción consiste en reconocer que las organizaciones de defensa civil son todavía las únicas organizaciones permanentes de respuesta a emergencias, y deben adoptarse iniciativas para fortalecerlas, aceptando el hecho de que en un desastre o catástrofe probablemente se margine una vez más a la defensa civil.
 
Sin embargo, la idea es mejorar las capacidades de defensa civil de modo (que menos episodios superen la barrera de protección). Es decir, dado que los niveles del episodio y por consiguiente la barrera de protección están determinados por los requisitos de respuesta frente a las capacidades de respuesta, si defensa civil puede mejorar sus capacidades, habrá menos emergencias que se conviertan en desastres o, peor aún, en catástrofes.
 
La segunda opción comienza como la primera (fortalecimiento de defensa civil), pero agrega una visión enteramente nueva que requiere un cambio fundamental en la imagen de defensa civil ( Ver articulo Nuevo Enfoque de la Defensa Civil Prof. Lincoln Alayo Bernal GOOGLE ). En estas condiciones, los líderes de defensa civil buscarían mejorar las capacidades de respuesta pero también comprender y aceptar que un desastre o una catástrofe se politiza rápidamente.
 
Sin embargo, anticipan explícitamente y planifican para actuar, de modo que ese cambio sea central a nuevas estructuras u organizaciones (y de ese modo evitar que se los margine). Bajo esta opción, a medida que un episodio se aproxima a la barrera de emergencia-desastre, es la defensa civil misma la que enuncia algo como: "Sr. Presidente, la situación escapa a nuestras capacidades y requiere respuesta y atención en el ámbito regional y nacional.
 
Indudablemente, es muy difícil que esta opción garantice el éxito, pero al menos convierte a defensa civil en un participante activo en lugar de una víctima pasiva cuando un episodio supera la barrera política. Dado que defensa civil en realidad planea una expansión rápida y global para ayudar a todo el gobierno a hacer frente a un desastre o catástrofe.

Prof. Mg. Lincoln Alayo Bernal

Consultor en Gestión de Riesgo de Desastres

Desde el 25 de Noviembre de 1990 

http://prevencionpe.blogspot.com/

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